Workplace Discrimination Charges Against Middle Eastern Americans in California Projected to Nearly Double in FY2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

• California leads with 1,115 projected FY2026 discrimination charges, 22.8% of 4,886, nearly triple second-highest Michigan (376).
• California has 703,000 Arab-Iranian residents (3.6%), largest nationally, with 158.6 charges per 100,000, ranking 28th in vulnerability.
• California’s rate clusters with Western neighbors: Nevada (166.7) higher, Arizona (159.7) slightly above, Washington (157.9) and Oregon (157.1) lower.

For Arab and Iranian-American people in California, the pattern is both documentable and devastating. Every time the United States escalates military conflict involving the Middle East, federal data shows a sharp, measurable spike in workplace discrimination charges. This is not an anecdote.

An analysis by Madia Law examined 25 years of EEOC charge data for Muslim and Middle Eastern national origin complaints, overlaid geopolitical conflict dates (9/11 2001, Iraq invasion 2003, ISIS crisis 2014, Iran escalation 2025–2026), derived a 1.98x average spike multiplier from the three confirmed events, and applied that multiplier to the FY2020–2023 annual average baseline of 2,466 charges to project FY2026 figures by state. State-level figures for Arab and Iranian ancestry populations are drawn from the U.S. Census ACS Table B04006 (2022 five-year estimates).

California Projects 1,115 FY2026 Discrimination Charges, the Highest in the Nation, While Ranking #28 in Per-Capita Vulnerability at 158.6 Per 100,000

Small-population states dominate the top 10 because their Arab-Iranian communities, while small in absolute terms, face concentrated per-capita exposure when charges are normalized against population size. California, ranking 28th nationally with a per-capita rate of 158.6 per 100,000, sits near the national midpoint in per-capita terms. However, the state’s absolute volume of 1,115 projected charges, driven by its 703,000-person Arab-Iranian community, the largest in the nation, dwarfs every other state. Wyoming’s projected rate of 266.7 per 100,000 is 68.2% higher than California’s, yet Wyoming projects only 4 total charges compared to California’s 1,115, illustrating the dramatic divergence between per-capita and absolute volume rankings.

Looking at the study, Ashwin Madia, Trial Lawyer from Madia Law, commented.

"This is not a recent phenomenon. Twenty-five years of federal data confirm a repeating, predictable cycle: when U.S. military conflict involving the Middle East escalates, workplace discrimination charges against Muslim and Middle Eastern employees follow. The FY2026 projection is credible precisely because the pattern has held across three prior conflicts. Employers and HR departments should be preparing now, not after complaints are filed."

California’s Per-Capita Rate Sits Mid-Range Among Western Neighbors: Nevada 5.1% Higher, Arizona 0.7% Higher, While Washington and Oregon Trail California

California’s per-capita discrimination risk is closely clustered with its Western regional neighbors, though its absolute volume is in a category of its own. Nevada, ranking 13th nationally with a projected rate of 166.7 per 100,000, exceeds California by 5.1%, driven by its smaller Arab-Iranian population of 18,000. Arizona, at 159.7, sits just 0.7% above California. Washington, at 157.9, trails by 0.4%. Oregon, at 157.1, falls 0.9% below California. While per-capita rates are comparable, California’s 703,000-person Arab-Iranian community produces an absolute charge volume that exceeds all four neighbors combined, Washington (150), Arizona (115), Oregon (55), and Nevada (30) together project 350 charges, less than one-third of California’s 1,115.

California Leads the Nation with 1,115 Projected FY2026 Discrimination Charges, Representing 22.8% of the National Total of 4,886, Nearly Triple the Second-Highest State

California alone accounts for 1,115 projected charges in FY2026, representing 22.8% of the entire national projected total of 4,886. Michigan, the second-highest state at 376, projects just over one-third of California's volume. The top three states, California (1,115), Michigan (376), and New York (361), together account for 1,852 projected charges, or 37.9% of the national total. The concentration of cases in California reflects both the state’s massive 703,000-person Arab-Iranian population and the density of large employers in the Los Angeles, San Francisco Bay Area, and San Diego metro regions, where the burden will fall most heavily.

No State Is Exempt: Even the 10 Lowest-Risk States Project a Near-Doubling of Discrimination Charges in FY2026

Even Idaho, the state with the lowest per capita vulnerability at rank 50, projects a 100% increase from its baseline of 5 charges to a projected 10, confirming this is a 50-state pattern with no geographic exceptions. The lowest projected per capita rate is 153.8 per 100,000 in Idaho. Separately, because the model applies a 1.98x multiplier nationwide, no state projects an increase of less than approximately 96% before rounding. California’s near-doubling from 563 baseline charges to 1,115 projected charges is consistent with this universal pattern, yet its absolute volume is unmatched.

Methodology

This analysis uses five federal data sources. The EEOC Muslim and Middle Eastern Charges dataset (FY1995–FY2015) served as the primary trendline source. The EEOC National Origin Charges dataset (FY2000–FY2017) extended the trendline through FY2017. The EEOC All Charges CSV (FY1997–FY2023) extended the trendline through FY2023 to establish the FY2020–FY2023 baseline. FBI Hate Crime data provided the broader hostility context layer. U.S. Census ACS Table B04006 (2022 five-year estimates) provided the per-capita denominators. The analytical process: (1) constructed a complete EEOC trendline from FY1995 through FY2023; (2) overlaid geopolitical conflict escalation dates (9/11 September 2001, Iraq invasion March 2003, ISIS crisis summer 2014, Iran escalation 2025–2026) to isolate the charge multiplier at each event; and (3) averaged the three confirmed multipliers to derive the 1.98x projection factor. EEOC fiscal years run October 1 through September 30; all conflict-date alignments account for this lag.

Data Sources

• EEOC Muslim and Middle Eastern Charges, FY1995–FY2015: https://www.eeoc.gov/data/charges-filed-basis-religion-muslim-or-national-origin-middle-eastern-fy-1995-fy-2015
• EEOC National Origin Charges with Muslim and Middle Eastern Percentage, FY2000–FY2017: https://www.eeoc.gov/national-origin-based-charges-filed-10012000-thru-09302017-showing-percentage-filed-charging
• EEOC All Charges CSV, FY1997–FY2023: https://www.eeoc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-05/Table%20E1a.%20Charge%20Receipts%20by%20Basis%20or%20Statute%20(All%20Statutes)%20FY%201997%20-%20FY%202023_0.csv
• FBI Crime Data Explorer, Hate Crimes: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/hate-crime
• U.S. Census ACS Table B04006, People Reporting Ancestry: https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT5Y2022.B04006
• Research Dataset: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_XurAmdDCxhn-ANphuOiHuBZ_9-ap9CWryemSCRrHO0/edit?gid=0#gid=0
• Research by: https://madialaw.com/

About Madia Law

The study was conducted by Madia Law, a Minnesota-based trial law firm focused on employment litigation, civil rights claims, and catastrophic injury cases. The firm represents high-earning professionals facing wrongful termination or workplace discrimination, as well as families impacted by police misconduct or medical malpractice. Preparing every case for trial from day one, Madia Law advocates aggressively to secure meaningful results for its clients.

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